The Shane Mosley vs Manny Pacquiao fight will be shown at MGM Grand Arena, on May 7, 2011, at 10 PM EST. Odds makers have Pacquiao as a 9:1 favorite. Freddie Roach, Pacquiao's trainer, believes Pacquiao can be the first to knock Mosley out. The strategy will be to out box and fatigue Mosley in the early rounds to set up a KO in the later stages. Freddie Roach thinks that Mosley, age 39, no longer has the legs to last 12 rounds with Pacquiao.
Mosley will most likely counter by using his significantly longer reach (74 inch wingspan) and 10 pounds size difference to disrupt Pacquiao's timing and create distance between himself and his smaller opponent.
Pacquiao is most effective when he boxes from the center of the ring, where he uses a high volume of accurate, powerful punches thrown from different angles to overwhelm his opponent's defense. Mosley needs to respond by keeping Pacquiao on the long end of frequently thrown stiff jabs to back Pacquiao towards the ropes, and then keep him there long enough to score and do damage. The jab is also the key to helping Mosley judiciously manage his energy expenditures; especially during the later rounds.
The question is can Mosley keep Pacquiao out of his punching range and wobble his smaller adversary with a big right cross or hook? Two fights ago for Mosley, I would have been very tempted to say yes. But Mosley's recent performances have been less than stellar. He lost a unanimous decision against Floyd Mayweather, Jr. in May, 2010. Then he drew even with Sergio Mora in a boring and forgettable match in September, 2010. Who? Exactly! Sergio Mora, a.k.a. Latin Snake, is the champ from season 1 of The Contender.
On the other hand, Manny Pacquiao has been relentlessly beating challengers to his legacy to a bloody pulp. He has proven that he can fight boxers 20 pounds out of his weight class and win with ease. The only threat that Sugar Shane Mosley possesses that Manny's other opponents didn't have is speed and the fact that Mosley represents the first Black American boxer Pacquiao will face. The argument of speed I buy. The idea that Mosley is capable of knocking out any opponent using his right or left hand, unquestionable. But I don't think facing an urban Black American style of boxing can grossly alter Manny's success in the ring. Some critics such as boxing legend Bernard Hopkins think otherwise.
There is also some noise being made about the fact that Mosley has never been KOed, thus Freddie Roach's desire to see Pacquiao be the first to do it. Maybe he will; maybe he won't. Shane is a tough boxer and capable of exploding on any fighter. Knock outs are never easy. Few fighters truly have one punch knock out power. Pacquiao certainly has not knocked anyone out with just one punch, but that scenario has happened to him on 3 occasions.
I'm a fan of both Pacquiao and Mosley for different reasons, and I will be happy with a positive outcome for either fighter. But objectively reviewing each boxer's current position, I don't think Mosley has enough sustainable fire power to beat Pacquiao. My prediction is that pride let's Shane go the distance, but Manny wins a unanimous decision.
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