Can Manny Pacquiao Be Beaten?

First, the circumstances of the question need to be clarified. I'm speaking of an opponent at a feasible weight class being able to beat Manny Pacquiao while he is at the pinnacle of his boxing career.

Realistically the competitor should weigh from 135lbs/61.2Kg (lightweight) - 147lb/66.7Kg (welterweight). The event has to occur within a 2 year time frame starting on January 1, 2011, ending on December 31, 2012.

Whether or not Pacquiao has completely matured and developed as a competitive prize fighter is a subjective argument, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that he has based on his performances over the last 2 years. I will also assume that his present physical condition and skills are not in jeopardy of declining for at least 2 more years.

Now let's address the fact that Pacquiao has already been beaten 3 times in his career. Two of those losses are by way of knockout. Rustico Torrecampo is responsible for the first KO loss in 1996, and Medgoen Singsurat gets credit for laying Pacquiao down in 1999. Ironically, each KO took place in the 3rd round, and both were the result of a single body shot. Some might argue that Pacquiao's current trainer, Freddy Roach, hadn't started training Pacquiao when he suffered these 2 KO losses, which otherwise might have helped Pacquiao avoid them. Perhaps it would have made a difference, but we will never know. So it's a moot point; moving on. Erik Morales is the last opponent to beat Pacquiao by way of a unanimous decision at the end of 12 rounds in 2005. Since then Pacquiao has gone on a undisturbed 5 year winning spree, in which he has been nothing short of exceptional throughout. Now having won 8 world boxing titles in 8 different weight classes Manny Pacquiao is boxing's current best pound-for-pound fighter and on the brink of reaching boxing immortality. A win over Floyd Mayweather Jr., the perceived second best fighter in the world, would all but assure Pacquiao being crowned the best pound-for-pound boxer ever.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. represents the only shred of doubt to Manny Pacquiao's legacy. Pacquiao is arguably the best offensive fighter in the sport of boxing today. However, one doesn't have to stretch their imagination to believe that Mayweather Jr. is presently the best defensive fighter and counter puncher. Both fighters are great competitors for different reasons. One could build a strong argument in either case why one fighter is better than the other. Only a dual can decisively answer the question of who is the better of the two, regardless of which fighter is your favorite to win.

Who can beat Pacquiao at the height of his carreer is not nearly as interesting a question as how that task can be accomplished? There have been plenty of seemingly qualified competitors to challenge Pacquiao in the last 2 years starting with Oscar De La Hoya, then Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Joshua Clottey, and lastly Antonio Margarito. All of whom Pacquiao fanatically imposed his will over.

Besting Pacquiao at this point of his career requires 3 key ingredients: speed, stamina, and a high boxing I.Q. Each boxer that I just mentioned is missing at least one of these 3 essentials. De La Hoya, Cotto and Margarito were too big to keep pace with Pacquiao. Meaning their weight to muscle ratio didn't favor them being able to through as many punches over a 12 round period as Pacquiao. Lightweight compact fighters are like little Energizer Bunnies that just keep going and going and going, which is what Pacquiao is. But Pacquiao's punches don't just come fast and frequently, they are also accurate and strong. De La Hoya and Margarito were too slow to be able to avoid Pacquiao's assualt, or be able to return fire. Cotto was able to match Pacquiao's speed, but not for the full length of a 12 round fight. In the first round of their meeting, Cotto backed Pacquiao up with fast, hard, crisp jabs. If Cotto had been able to sustain that punching intensity, he might have pulled off the upset. In terms of boxing I.Q., De La Hoya and Cotto are smart technicians inside the ring. Margarito is a true warrior, but his boxing skills are only fair at best. As a note, Margarito was beaten-up the worst by Pacquiao amongst the three.

Ricky Hatton proved to be the easiest opponent for Pacuiao to beat. Hatton is a brawler with a low boxing I.Q. He just recklessly runs straight into the line of fire. For a deadly accurate puncher like Pacquiao, Hatton presented no more of a challenge than a heavy bag drill. Consequently, Hatton was dropped by a hook he never saw coming in the 2nd round. To Hatton's credit he did enter the fight well conditioned. But his speed and ring generalship weren't even close to being on par with Pacquia's skill sets.

Joshua Clottey was an interesting opponent, but not competitive. Clottey is highly defensive; almost too defensive. He took very few chances in his match with Pacquiao. The strategy allowed him to last 12 rounds with Pacquiao; only sustaining minimal damage. But it also nullified any chance of Clottey to win the bout. Because he wasn't willing to engage Pacquiao, Clottey never got a chance to showcase his very good inside fighting skills. In retrospect, even if Clottey had come forward on Pacquiao, he doesn't have the speed and footwork to keep Pacquiao trapped on the ropes long enough to be able to put in effective body work. But an attempt would have made the fight more interesting to watch. Clottey gets a "A" for defense, "B-'s" for speed and stamina, and than "F's" for offense and aggression. That spells an average performance which doesn't win world titles.

Based on these 5 fights is there a blueprint that has emerged for beating Manny Pacquiao? Maybe; maybe not. But you certainly get a clear idea of what strengths Pacquiao brings to the boxing ring. I believe the following conditions have to be met to legitimately challenge Pacquiao.

1. The opponent has to be naturally 140 - 150 pounds. Fighters past this weight have too much baggage to drag around the ring to keep pace with Pacquiao for the entirety of a 12 round championship bout.
2. They must obviously be as fast, if not faster than Pacquiao.
3. Their footwork must be excellent. This skill is needed to help force Pacquiao towards the ropes, and then keep him from sliding laterally into open space. Pacquiao is noticeably less effective fighting with his back on the ropes, than when he is in the center of the ring. When cornered, he holds his guards up high. At that moment he is open for uppercuts and hooks to the body. Remember, body shots are what lead to Pacquiao's 2 KO losses. In his recent fights verses De La Hoya and Margarito, the one punch that either was successful in landing against Pacquiao was the uppercut to the body. They were just too slow and easily made tired to do it often enough.
4. Back Pacquiao up with hard fast jabs, and then go underneath. Pacquiao is short, agile and fast, so it is very easy for him to slip under punches over the top. Bringing an aggressive inside fight to Pacquiao would help minimize his speed, while punching underneath would keep him from slipping under shots.
5. Now you just have to find one fighter that can fulfill each condition and carry out the tasks with vigor for 12 grueling rounds. Not too much to ask.

Is Floyd Mayweather Jr. up to the challenge?